Land price explosion

[SPJ]

I understand that the land prices have shot up recently because of the banks loaning money against their perceived value of the land. So the golden question – what are people’s thoughts on if the prices sustaining their newly inflated prices? Will they hold and continue to soar, or will s Farang hold off and wait for them to come back down to a more ‘realistic’ price?

I am looking at 4 rai of land in Koh Lanta. However, the prices on the west coast vary from 5mill and up to ridiculous amounts.

THe land I want to buy is on the east side which doesn't have any swimming beaches. I believe that Lanta will become popular and want to split the land I buy into resale plots as I only require about 1/3 - 1/2 rai for my personal requirements. Does anyone have an idea of what is a realistic price for the land is for a Farang?

[dozer]

Land prices have taken a breather, at least in the Pattaya area, since many administrative changes last year with the new government. Prices should be the same for farang and Thai, since the property must be registered to a person of Thai nationality or to a business with no foreign directors.

[BKKBILL]

An old thread but prices are starting to come back. Seems real estate is still a good way to go. Also read the banks will be making it easier and lending more this year.

Phuket foreign property sales to grow 25% this year

Kamala is home to many high-end development projects.

PHUKET: -- Real estate sales to foreigners in Phuket are expected to grow 25 per cent this year to 5 billion baht, according to property development firm Seacon.

Nevertheless, sales are likely to remain at least 50 per cent lower than during the boom years of 2006 and 2007, when foreign sales came in at 10 to 12bn baht each year.

Piya Sosothikul, executive director of Seacon, said property sales to foreigners in Phuket were worth about 4bn baht last year, up around 25 per cent on 2009. Trends are improving, with sales expected to reach 5bn this year, he said.

The market has still not fully recovered from its peak before the 2008 financial crisis, however. The major reason for continued weak sales is the economic situation in Europe, particularly the UK, where large numbers of customers came from in the past, he said.

The strength of the baht is also a factor. The appreciation of the currency means property is becoming more expensive for foreign buyers, he said.

Another factor is lack of confidence, Mr Piya added.

There are many projects on the island that people have invested in that have been delayed or remain unfinished, he said.

The foreign property market in Phuket is Thailand's second-largest after Bangkok. Rounding out the top seven are Pattaya, Chiang Mai, Samui, Hua Hin and Krabi, respectively, he said.

Mr Piya said there were 147 property projects under development in Phuket.

Of these, 23 would be considered “super premium”, meaning they comprise villas worth at least US$2 million each. Most of them were found in Surin, Kamala and west coast areas overlooking the sea.

There are 96 projects with units costing between 5 to 60 million baht each, which are spread all over the island, Mr Piya said. There are also 28 condominium projects, he added.


-- Phuket Gazette 2011-01-05

[fredlk]

I don't want to be a pessimist, but I will never believe anything a realtor says. It's always "now's the best time to buy" and "the market is on the up".
If you follow the business sections of especially the Bangkok Post you will always see them trying to talk their market up and the more they do the worse reality seems to be.
Apart from the above, real estate is always a good investment in any country at anytime I would think, especially if you're thinking long (long, long) term.

[Roger Ramjet]

fred,
You're not a pessimist, I just got back from fishing the New Year in at Moo Ban Talay, Koh Samet and the owner and his wife was there. The whole market, especially in Phuket, is in the doldrums at the moment with resorts running at 60% occupancy (and it's peak season) and land prices being over inflated. He stated that most of the land they are touting as developed, has actually sat idle for the last 4 or 5 years with no infrastructure (no water or electricity) connected and no work being done. The cancellation rate for the peak season was high, thanks to the Thai fortune teller predicting a tsunami, that of course never happened, and also the testing of the warning system that failed three times.

[canopy]

I am curious, has there ever been a general price drop (not just a specific one here and there) in Thailand? Just because property sales shrinks year over year doesn't seem to result in a general downward guidance to prices. Take my area out in the countryside. Thai's here think whatever they asked for the land last year, they need to raise the price to something higher than that this year. And they just keep doing that every year. And we aren't talking single digit increases but big double digit increases. This is in spite of the fact no one is interested in the land they are selling.

[MGV12]

I am curious, has there ever been a general price drop (not just a specific one here and there) in Thailand? Just because property sales shrinks year over year doesn't seem to result in a general downward guidance to prices. Take my area out in the countryside. Thai's here think whatever they asked for the land last year, they need to raise the price to something higher than that this year. And they just keep doing that every year. And we aren't talking single digit increases but big double digit increases. This is in spite of the fact no one is interested in the land they are selling.

Purely based on my own experience and observations in LOS:

There will always be exceptions but Thais appear to take little/no regard to government facts and figures ... probably because they have grown up to realise that you can't trust anything that is printed as it often contradicts itself over time ... so they just decide what they want to get for their land and stick with it regardless. If it doesn't sell they will still increase the price over time regardless ... vast areas of land [and houses] remain unsold since the 1997 Baht revaluation as the owners refuse to accept that their land is worth less than it was before. Often the only time they will reconsider the price they are asking is if another piece in their area is sold for a higher price per Rai [most often to a farang] and then they will increase their asking price in accordance. They tend to pay little regard to differences between their land and that sold at a higher price .. such as road access, view, water/electric/phone availability. They are also not overly influenced by features or attributes the way 'we' are ... our land is very close to a major golf course but that doesn't seem to influence the price .... we are also close to the 'burning bodies' place [simple translation] but whatever you hear to the contrary that doesn't seem to affect the price or the desirability as most of our neighbours are Thai; you hear the occasional story of those frightened by 'ghosts' but most don't care any more than we do.

Many Thais from all walks of life will speculate with land as they know at some point they will make a profit ... by one means or another ... much is bought with money borrowed or accumulated within their extended family ... many buy with money borrowed from a local savings group ... fewer from a bank due to the high interest rates and conditions. Much of the land where the price appears to be plucked from the air is land they or their parents were 'given' by the government years ago and over time got it registered ... therefore it owes them very little. As we have experienced locally ... some will even try to sell land they don't or can't own ... and will even accompany the purchaser straight-faced to the land office to do the transfer. When the 'purchaser' is told that they don't and can't own it the 'seller' will retain that straight face and maybe shrug their shoulders with a "Mai Pen Rai" ... no apology for the time wasted or deception attempted; in one case we know of no deposit refunded either!

It's a totally different environment to that which most of us grew up with ... is it wrong? Are they villains? Apart from the few selling land they don't own not according to them ... and most of them truly believe that's the way it should be done. And who are we to judge? In the UK few will or indeed can have experience of buying land as it's nigh on impossible these days ... why? Because by brute force, deception, gifts from the Crown for 'services rendered', restricted 'for the Public good' [until some Minister arbitrarily decides otherwise] and other debatable practices it's all owned by a wealthy few/the church/the Crown/institutions. No less 'corruption', 'deception' or practices that would be considered devious or unusual by others in our history. Anyone think their own country is transparent and above reproach?

[BKKBILL]

If any Thai in a particular area sells and gets a higher price than those around him that price within days becomes the minimum price of all properties. It doesn’t mater if the plot has a view. is rice patty. or swamp. One of the problems here unlike western countries is if you own the land there are no costs involved to keep it for years and years. Although the suits are talking of changes to property taxation here. So like most Thai businesses if sales drop you just raise prices thus maintaining your profits.

[Nawty]

Prices here have gone up 400% in 2 years.

[otis-a]

coud it be increase in rice price?

Is 50ktb per rai ok for rice land?

[Nawty]

Depends where it is....we paid 500k for rice land.....we eat a lotta rice.

[pattayapope]

We bougth 4 1/2 rai for 70 K baht \ rai about 10 km ouside of Kanchanaburi two years ago now I think it is about 120 K \ Rai, it has asphalt road, power and water and even telephone and internet available. If we build two story we can see the mountains, we have only put a gate and fence for the time being till funds and motivation come around.

View of land in Kanchanaburi

[otis-a]

hi Nauty
how many kg of rice per year does the land gross and since is likely let for farming to others what is your net kg of rice per year?
:

[Nawty]

No idea.....all a bit technical for me......we grow it, they come.

Actually the lady next door grows it and she gives us 10 bags.

10 bags lasts us more than the whole year, for a family of 6....ish